IdaBet.com is pleased to share Michael Carter’s analysis of tonight’s card for our players wagering consideration.
Thanks for choosing IdaBet.com and playing Northfield Park!
Northfield Park Analysis: 3/14/2016
Michael Carter – Northfield Park
Best Bet: Americhi – Race 10
Value Play: Chad – Race 3
$1.00 P5 (R3): 2, 4, 9 / 5, 6 / 1, 4, 5 / 1 / 2, 5 – $36.00
$1.00 P4 (R8) $10,000 Guaranteed Pool: 1, 2, 3 / 1, 5 / 7, 8 / 3, 4 – $24.00
$0.20 Super Hi-5 (R13) $10,000 Guaranteed Pool: 5 / 2, 4 / 2, 4 / 3, 6, 7 / 3, 6, 7 – $2.40
Race 1-Trot
Open II
Selections: 1-5-3
I really like the way that this race sets up because there is a lot of speed in the field as a whole. Saying that I have to go with where I see the most improvement in what is a pretty competitive field. #1 Song In My Heart is coming off two decent races after adding trotting hopples. He came first up last time out and only missed by a couple of lengths. Since adding the hopples seems to have really improved and should put in a better effort against this group. #5 Edit has really been on the improve as of late and seems to really get along well with Joe Bongiorno. He has won 2 of his last 3 if you include the DQ on February 15. Post improvement definitely is playing to his favor. #3 Kahoku really has looked sharp during recent weeks. Against this same type of class last out he closed home very gamely, and has raced at Northfield before. The question will be is the field a little tough for him.
Race 2-Pace
Claiming $8,000
Selections: 2-4-1
#2 Regil Tiger sustained a parked out journey last time out and that makes him really jump off the page at me. He is in first off the claim this week for trainer Johnny Yoder who is in the money 62% when racing 1st back off the claim. He took a little bit of time off to rest after that journey and he should come right back to that form. One of the more consistent $8,000 claimers as of late has been #4 Bourbans Best. This gelding doesn’t win a whole lot of races, but if you are looking for some good value in the exotics this gelding could do it. He draws decent in a smaller field and should close up nicely from trainer/driver Sam Schillaci. Michael Dowdall claimed #1 Spunky Monkey right back last week after a difficult bid from post 9. Tonight he draws a lot better towards the inside and while he has a little bit of early speed, if someone can get around him such as Idbegoodatthat early, then I doubt his ability to fight back.
Race 3-Trot
NW $5,000 L5 Sts AE: Claiming $8,000
Selections: 9-2-4
This group of Non-Winners company could definitely present a little bit of value especially to kick off the Pick 5 sequence. #9 Chad is stuck at Post 9, but I have said before this is not a complete death sentence. The good thing for Joe Bongiorno is that #2 Tsunami Dream has some early speed and can get off the gate and is the one I would follow. He has been known to close from off the pace before and if the 15/1 morning line holds, you really could get a nice price on a horse who has beaten $15,000 claimers before. #4 Booyah TJ is moving up in class, but seems to really be on the improve since adding Lasix late last year. Since coming back he has won 2 straight including a race from the outside last time out. He has been off for about a month after that performance, but gets a decent post and is another value play. I have a hard time going to the outside in this race, so my 3rd selection is #3 Absolutely Certain who is back against this class again after a tough performance last out. The one big thing that has been working against this gelding is the posts he has been drawing. He has beaten this class before and I think 4/1 morning line is very generous.
Race 4-Pace
Claiming $5,000; Non-Winners $3,500 Last 5
Selections: 5-6-3
This is a race that will come down to consistency in a sense as there could be a couple false favorites. #5 Tough Love is my top selection, throwing out the start last time out from post 8. This gelding has been known to come from off the pace against this class and even win a couple times. If he gets off the gate and gets settled into a good position then I think he will get a garden trip. #6 Movin’ N Shakin’ is an interesting play from post six and will be one of the bigger value plays of the night. He has been known to win from the outside against this class and has speed some of the inside horses do not. I expect Sugg to chase him away and play catch me if you can. #3 P L Dragon was a winner from the inside last week, but that consistency that I like to see from claimers just has not been there. I expect him to show a little bit of speed, but I could see Movin’ N Shakin’ getting by him, the question is can he come from off the pace.
Race 5-Trot
Non-Winners $6,500 L5 Sts AE: Claiming $10,000
Selections: 1-5-4
#1 A Crown For Lindy has been claimed three times in the last three starts and for very good reason. Tonight he moves up a little bit in class after hitting the board in three straight efforts. He enjoys sitting off the pace which could help him as he doesn’t show a lot of gate speed, one to watch from the inside especially if the price is right. #5 Wheres The Clickerhas hit the board in 5 of his last 6 starts if you include the placing on February 15. Since being claimed by trainer Herman Hagerman he seems to have responded well and the value price is there for the exotics. He is not a big winner, but does enjoy the board. #4 Star Chip is taking a pretty big drop in class after facing Open company 3 weeks in a row. He draws well this week and hits the board regularly. Closing speed will be the factor here, definitely not one to leave off.
Click here to subscribe to our email list!
Race 6-Pace
NW $8,100 Last 5 Sts AE: NW $800/Start In 15-16
Selections: 1-6-2
This race is a very tough one as there are a lot of class droppers, unfortunately I am not finding much value here. #1 Get Around Town has been hit or miss against Open company and hasn’t raced the best since adding Lasix a few starts back. He draws well tonight, and he has to get off the gate well to have a shot against a very good group. #6 Pass The Deuceclosed very gamely last week closing home in 28 2/5 in 1:54 2/5 only missing by a little over a length. Gets another tough draw this week for trainer Calvin Hollar, but he has proven that he can produce from out here. #2 It’s Getting Hairy is taking a jump up in class to face tougher tonight, and is one of the more consistent horses in the group. Gets a good draw and has a strong heart along with closing ability.
Race 7-Pace
Claiming $6,000
Selections: 5-2-4
#5 Clinton Hanover is a very interesting horse to watch and look at tonight. Has really put in some consistent efforts and loves to come from off the pace. Last time out the move he made at the ¾ pole having to go three wide proved to be a winning one. Not trying to beat the potential favorite or 2nd choice here. #2 All Powerful is the big closer of the field and hasn’t drawn the inside in a while. I could see Wrenn taking this gelding back a little bit and then coming strongly from off the pace. One to watch out for, but the price won’t be right here. #4 Bettor’s Destiny held his own last week making his 1st start against the $6,000 claimers. He draws a little bit better this week and gets along well with Ryan Stahl who really brought out the best in this horse last out. If he can avoid the 3 wide bid at the ¾ pole he may have something in the tank.
Race 8-Pace
NW $6,500 L5
Selections: 2-3-1
This is another very interesting race and will depend on how it sets up to see who will have the early pace. #2 Dress The Part is dropping down out of the Open for trainer Virgil Morgan Jr. He gets a good draw, but it is the start 2 races back from post 8 that really sticks out to me and jumps off the page. He was parked the mile and still managed to battle on. I am expecting another big effort tonight with a good post. #3 Glory Beach has done well against this group before, throw out the race from post 8 last time out. He gets a good draw this week and has been known to come from off the pace against these. #1 Grandkids Attack was a strong winner last week from post 8 off a 28 4/5 final quarter. He draws the rail today and is facing a little bit tougher company.
Race 9-Trot
Open Handicap (PP8 Assigned)
Selections: 5-1-8
#5 Pay The Winners is my price play in this race and its just by the sheer consistency of this trotter. He draws decently this week and that could play to his favor as he has the ability to show speed and then rate the fractions. Definitely a contender. #1 Parkhill Lancelot is a curious horse to watch out for and the biggest issue I have is that he tends to go off stride. When he minds his manners he is definitely one to watch out for. Hoping that he minds his manners this week. #8 Ray Hall gets the tough end of the stick this week as he is assigned the outside after winning last out on March 7th. He has the ability to get off of the car, but not normally from the outside. Not my favorite against this group, but could hit the exotics.
Race 10-Pace
Open Handicap (Draw 1-6; Draw 7-8)
Selections: 8-7-6
#8 Americhi makes his return tonight after almost a month off for trainer C. Brian Loney. He absolutely dominated the competition three weeks in a row from post 8 and I am not expecting anything different tonight, the only issue I see is that this class has been going 1:52 each of the last three weeks, will be interesting to see what happens. #7 Classic Gentis another three time winner and is stuck on the outside as well which is nothing new for this gelding. He has put in some superb efforts and seems to be getting faster and faster, the impressive part here is the final quarter speed he is able to utilize. I don’t normally stick to outside horses, but tonight I am going to with #6 Hanky L for third. He has had a little bit of trouble from the outside, but if the pace up front falls apart he has a strong ability to close and at least hit the board.
Race 11-Pace
NW $6,500 L5 AE: NW 7 PM Races AE: Claiming $10,000
Selections: 4-3-6
Unfortunately when you see chalk that is the class of the race you have to try to make money with it. In this race #4 Pop Cop seems to be the absolute class of the race and the draw was very kind to him. He has a ton of early speed and is one of the big contenders dropping back down to face easier conditioned company. #3 Midnight Gambol has been one of the more consistent claimers as of late. He was parked out the mile last week and really looked sharp just missing by a ½ length. If anyone is going to beat Pop Cop it’s this gelding. #6 Stop Payment is back against this class tonight and has some closing speed, but hasn’t been the best performer from the outside. Question mark here, but could hit the board.
Race 12-Trot
NW $4,000 L5 Sts That Are NW $20,000 In 2016 AE: Claiming $6,000
Selections: 1-2-9
#1 Ergo Hanover has won two straight races including one against this class from post 8. Tonight he draws the rail and is definitely the one to beat. He picks up A. Merriman again this week who he really gets along with. #2 Beer League didn’t have the best luck against this class last week and the concerning part was how quickly he faded. He gets a good draw this week and could very well be the speed of the race. I have a feeling Ergo Hanover will be challenging early, maybe give and go here. #9 Jesse’s Messenger is dropping in class tonight after a tough effort against a more difficult class. Was a winner from post 5 last time against this group, should be close to the board.
Race 13-Pace
NW $5,000 L5
Selections: 5-2-4
#5 JW Racer is an interesting horse to me as he is back against this class after dropping down last time out, but he has had some terrible post draws. He draws a little bit better this week and with not a whole lot of speed inside I could see him being close to the pace. #2 Action Metro Max is dropping in class as well after a tough performance from post 2 last out. The last time he faced this class was on January 26 and he was a winner by open lengths. Definitely expect a big mile, but don’t expect 3/1. #4 Luckey Rei closed very strongly dropping down last out to finish a game 3rd. My issue is that this horse hasn’t been the most consistent animal as of late. Will need something more to have a shot, but could hit the board.
Race 14-Pace
NW $4,000 L5 Sts That Are NW $20,000 In 2016
Selections: 1-3-6
#1 Just Crowned draws very well this week after a tough trip from post 6 at Miami Valley. He has been known to show speed against tougher company, but the class drop should help considerably tonight. #3 Cheyenne Moishe is another big class dropper after facing Open level company. He draws very well this week and is always close to the pace and should be able to hit the board. #6 Our Mclovin has had 2 tough draws against this group and never recovered from the Judges scratch on February 24th. Has some late speed and picks up Wrenn again, that might help.
Race 15-Pace
Claiming $5,000 NW $3,500 L5 Sts
Selections: 7-4-9
#7 High And Tight is moving up a little bit in class this week after hitting the board two weeks in a row from the outside. He gets a tough draw and Bongiorno really gets along well with him that should help out. #4 Electrify is dropping down in class after a tough first over trip last time out against tougher claimers. He has a little bit of early speed, but can also come from off the pace. #9 Hemingway seems to like post 9 because he can position himself early on which helps out. Should provide a little bit of value on the board.
