We thought you would want to know how the horses are finishing on the 142nd running of the Derby and the great racing action at Churchill today.  Although we regret Churchill’s decision to restrict their signal, we think that this information can be valuable to you down the road with other wager considerations.

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By Ellis Starr – National Racing Analyst for Equibase

The field for the Grade 1, Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum! Brands is led by Nyquist, the undefeated (seven-for-seven) Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and champion 2-Year Old. He has done everything asked of him and even though he will be the likely betting favorite, in a 20 horse field he may offer good return for the risk. Exaggerator finished second behind Nyquist in the Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes in February and two races later exploded on the far turn to win the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, the same race won by 2014 Derby winner California Chrome and 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another. They are joined by the other major Derby prep winners in Grade 1 Arkansas Derby winner Creator, Grade 2 Louisiana Derby winner Gun Runner, Grade 1 Wood Memorial winner Outwork, Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes winner Brody’s Cause, Grade 3 Spiral Stakes winner Oscar Nominated and Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby winner Destin. In addition, the runners-up from all those preps are back and trying to turn the tables on their foes, including Tom’s Ready, Majesto, Trojan Nation, My Man Sam, Suddenbreakingnews and Mor Spirit. Then there’s Lani, a Kentucky bred who made his first five starts in Japan before winning the Group 2 U.A. E. Derby and earning his spot in the starting gate at Churchill Downs.

Regarding the pace of the race, there has been a lot of discussion about the early pace scenario in this year’s Derby. The majority of the entrants have shown mostly a closing style, with up to half the field usually launching rallies from far back. On the other hand, there may be just enough early speed, courtesy of Danzing Candy and Outwork, to give those closers the hot pace that benefits their style. We will certainly know which scenario is in play after a half-mile of the race has been run.

Main contenders:

Until the Santa Anita Derby had been run, I had been looking for a horse with an explosive kick, not the kind so many in here have shown in the stretch but rather from about three-eighths of a mile to go until an eighth of a mile to go. I wanted a horse in front around the eighth pole in the same manner as American Pharoah had been in all of his prep races prior to last year’s Derby. I also wanted a horse like 2013 Derby winner Orb, who in winning the Florida Derby five weeks prior to that had shown an explosive kick on the turn. In the Santa Anita Derby, Exaggerator showed me that kind of kick, accelerating when asked by jockey Kent Desormeaux to pass the field in the blink of an eye, or so it appeared. He was nine and one-half lengths back with a quarter mile to go and four and one-half lengths in front with an eighth of a mile to go. He earned a 100+ Equibase® Speed Figure for the fourth consecutive race, this time getting a 103 figure, two below his career best of 105. Although the two biggest wins of his career, in the Santa Anita Derby and $ 1,000,000 Delta Downs Jackpot Stakes, came in the mud, Exaggerator has won twice on fast tracks so he is not just a rainy day horse and as such gets slight preference among a bunch who can win this year’s Kentucky Derby.

Aside from a fourth place finish on a sloppy track in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall, Gun Runner has done nothing wrong in his career, winning his other four races. He started his sophomore campaign with a win in the Risen Star Stakes with a career best 106 Equibase® Speed Figure then earned a similar figure (105) when four lengths clear of Tom’s Ready in the Louisiana Derby. Having been in front with an eighth of a mile to go in both his races this year and with Florent Geroux a perfect two-for-two when aboard the colt, Gun Runner’s best races matches up well with the best races Nyquist (107 figure) has put forth, as well as Exaggerator, and should be in the thick of the action at the finish.

It’s hard to rank an undefeated horse such as Nyquist as the third win contender but truthfully that’s more a function of the fact that his odds will be lower than Exaggerator and Gun Runner, nothing more. Nyquist has earned back-to-back 107 figures in both his starts as a three year old and he has been in front at the eighth pole in his six races since debuting last July. American Pharoah showed the same pattern coming into the 2015 Derby. Some have said Nyquist doesn’t possess the needed kick to win the Derby, or he appears to want to run on the lead and could be compromised by a fast pace. However, one look at how he ran in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile should dispel any of that talk as he rallied from sixth, three lengths back with a quarter mile to go, to lead in the stretch. As such, it may be that Nyquist exits the Derby with his perfect record intact.

Creator has been 11th or farther back after both a quarter mile and half mile in his last three races, two of them wins including last month in the Arkansas Derby where he earned a career best 103 . Although it took Creator five tries to earn his first win, he’s improved by leaps and bounds since then and has potential to peak in the Derby. With a clear path in the last quarter mile, he could follow in the footsteps of American Pharoah in terms of using the Arkansas Derby as a stepping stone to becoming the Derby winner.

Suddenbreakingnews has the same “from the clouds” running style as Creator, having rallied from 14th to win the Southwest Stakes by nearly three lengths in February, earning a 108. However, he didn’t move forward when fifth in the Rebel Stakes in his next start. Showing some return to form last month when rallying from 10th to second in the Arkansas Derby with a 101 figure effort, Suddenbreakingnews is bound to be passing many of these in the stretch and with any luck might post the upset.

I have been listing six win contenders for the Derby, owing to its 20 horse field, for over 10 years now. This year coming up with #6 was harder than most but I landed on Lani as the last of the main contender group. A Kentucky bred son of Tapit (the same sire as Mohaymen and Creator), Lani won the U.A. E. Derby on March 26 to earn his way into this field. That was his third win in six races and in that race he showed a lot of tenacity and intelligence. He shipped into Kentucky a few weeks ago and although not all of his morning works have gone as planned because he’s a bit head strong, his trainer is well aware of his idiosyncrasies and believes when the gates open for the Derby he will know what to do.

Other horses of note:

Outwork and Trojan Nation, the winner and runner-up, respectively, in the Wood Memorial, are interesting. They both earned career best 102 figures in the race while battling head-and-head the last 16th of a mile. I prefer Trojan Nation over Outwork, because his odds will be much higher as he’s still a maiden (hasn’t won a race) but also because he showed he wasn’t intimidated when rallying up the rail and almost won the race at 80 to 1 odds. Brody’s Cause hasn’t run nearly as fast as any of the main contenders, his best figure being 99 earned winning the Blue Grass Stakes last month. Still, he has won at Churchill Downs and is a multiple Grade 1 stakes winner so it’s possible he could be up to the task. Mo Tom (103 best figure) comes from far back in the same manner as many here and unfortunately had his rally stopped twice in the stretch by tiring horses in his last two races. Hopefully, jockey Corey Lanerie will steer him to the middle of the track for his late run this time. My Man Sam (96 figure when second in the Blue Grass), Tom’s Ready (99 figure when second in the Louisiana Derby), and Majesto (102 figure when second in the Florida Derby) are three more horses that come from far back and if able to secure running room in the stretch could be factors.

The rest of the field, with their recent Equibase® Speed Figures , is Danzing Candy (110 in the San Felipe Stakes then 83 in the Santa Anita Derby), Destin (110 in the Sam F. Davis Stakes then 100 in the Tampa Bay Derby), Mohaymen (115 figure in the Fountain of Youth Stakes then 94 in the Florida Derby), Mor Spirit (108 figure in the San Felipe then 93 in the Santa Anita Derby), Oscar Nominated (95 in the Black Gold Stakes then 98 in the Spiral Stakes), Shagaf (110 figure in the Gotham Stakes but 96 subsequently in the Wood Memorial), and Whitmore (104 in the Rebel Stakes then 99 in the Arkansas Derby).

In other news:

Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill Downs

The 4-year-old Kitten’s Joy colt captured his first graded stakes race on Derby Day in 2015 at odds of nearly 9-1, and repeated the performance with a gutsy 6-1 victory in Saturday’s Grade 1 Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill Downs. The Buff Bradley trainee covered nine furlongs over the turf course, rated firm despite a brief downpour just before the race, in 1:47.37 under Edgar Prado, holding off World Approval by a neck.

Divisdero broke alertly at the head of the lane, settled just off the leaders as the group passed under the wire for the first time. Midnight Storm wanted the early lead, laying out solid fractions of :23.09 and :46.32. Bolo rushed up, muscling his way between horses to force the issue after the first quarter mile despite Mike Smith’s strong hold, followed by World Approval on the outside in third. Prado found Divisdero a perfect spot in seventh along the outside, avoiding traffic as the field wound it’s way down the backstretch.

After three-quarters in 1:10.90, Midnight Storm began to weaken as World Approval closed the gap on him from third. Divisidero had begun to move as well as the race favorite, Big Blue Kitten, from the rear of the field. Entering the turn for home Divisidero was four-wide and moving well just as Midnight Storm dropped out of it, donating the lead to World Approval. Those two engaged in battle stride-for-stride down the stretch, with Divisidero and Prado just inches in front at the sixteenth pole. Crossing under the wire, Divisidero managed to extend his lead to a neck over World Approval, capturing his first Grade 1 event. Slumber snuck up the inside hedge to finish third, while Tourist was fourth.

An incident on the far turn saw Kasagui fall, unseating rider Paco Lopez and causing the fall of Triple Threat and Jose Lezcano, who had been racing behind the pair.

Bred in Kentucky by Hinkle Farms, Divisidero was a $250,000 purchase at the Keeneland September yearling sale. The colt has now boosted his career record to four wins from eight starts, with earnings of over $680,000.

Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs

Michael Tabor, Derrick Smith and John Magnier’s Taris finally got that elusive Grade 1 win on her resume when running away with Saturday’s Humana Distaff at Churchill Downs. The 5-year-old daughter of Flatter skipped home 5 3/4 lengths in front of Stonetastic to stop the clock in 1:21.03 over the fast main track for trainer Simon Callaghan.

“There’s a little bit of pressure with such a high purchase price, but she deserved it and she deserved it before this,” said Callaghan, who paid $2.35 million for the mare at the 2014 Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Sale. “We couldn’t be happier. It was a perfect trip. We thought there would be speed up to the inside and we just got a nice, clean trip and it just worked out perfectly.”

Taris broke sharply alongside Stonetastic and then was taken back to several lengths off the pace by jockey Flavien Prat, saving her run for the end of the race. As expected, Stonetastic was sent out after the early lead, drawing away by just over two lengths down the backstretch through fractions of :22.19 and :44.95. The leader was tracked by Super Saver along the inside as Taris waited patiently just off that rival’s flank, with Enchanting Lady biding her time from fourth. Race-favorite Wavell Avenue was in seventh early.

Entering the far turn, Taris made her bid for Prat, easily drawing alongside Stonetastic. The two were head-and-head at the top of the lane, but Taris had something left in the tank. Drawing away with an eighth of a mile to run, Prat hand-rode Taris to the wire, finishing about five lengths in front of her rivals. Stonetastic fought on gamely to hold second over Enchanting Lady, and Wavell Avenue settled for fourth after being forced very wide on the far turn.

“I had a good trip,” said Prat. “It was the trip I was hoping for. I was happy coming into the turn and the pace was what I wanted. When she turned for home, she was gone.”

Bred in Kentucky by Claiborne Farm and Adele B. Dilschneider, Taris was initially sold at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale for $90,000. After beginning her racing career with four wins, including one in the Gr. 2 Raven Run at Keeneland, Taris went through the Fasig-Tipton Kentucky Fall Mixed Sale in 2014. There, the well-bred filly out of Comedy (Theatrical) brought $2.35 million from Simon Callaghan as agent. Since that time, Taris has improved her career record to eight wins from 13 starts overall, including today’s Grade 1 as her first top-level victory. Taris now boasts career earnings of $1.08 million.

“She just faded a little bit in her last race going a mile and an eighth,” Callaghan said, “and her better numbers were (going) shorter and we thought that earlier in the year would be the better time to stretch her out, but she’s definitely better at this distance. We might stretch her back out a little bit; back in California the ($400,000) Vanity ((GI), June 4) is a mile this year. We might do that. We’ll think about it, but there are lots of options. The Breeders’ Cup (Filly and Mare Sprint (GI)) at the end of the year is the obvious goal.”